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UCF economist predicts Florida's 2012 economic forecast

Contributing Writer

Published: Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Updated: Friday, February 3, 2012 00:02

The status of the economy has been the subject of discussion for what seems like forever. Though numbers and figures may be hard to digest when times are bad, Sean Snaith, director of UCF's Institute for Economic Competitiveness, helped to put things in an understandable perspective.

The Small Business Development Center held a meeting on Thursday that gave people a look into the direction of Florida's economy and the forecast for 2012. This was apart of a the Strategic Seminar Series, which is designed to give business owners tools needed develop a strategy plan in this economy, according to SBDC's website.

Eunice Choi, regional director of SBDC, made opening remarks and was hopeful that the Snaith's economic forecast for 2012 would be positive.

"I hope he can give a little bit better news than last year," she said.

Snaith, who is known for his sense of humor as well as his knowledge of economics, described Florida's economy as a "Dorian Gray Economy," based of the novel "A Picture of Dorian Gray" by Oscar Wilde. In Wilde's only published novel, the main character Dorian strikes a deal with the devil to live young and handsome forever, while only a painting of himself ages.

Dorian committed a series of crimes during his lifetime and the painting reflected his sins by growing older and more ugly. Snaith compared this to how Florida's economy is currently reflecting the transgressions and policy missteps that were taken during the recession, meaning that the decisions that were made in hard times have caused Florida's slow recovery.

He also compared Florida's economy to that of Chang and Eng Bunker, twins who lived their entire lives conjoined. When Chang died of pneumonia a doctor was called in to separate Eng, but he refused and died a few hours later. The wellbeing of Chang directly affected that of Eng, much like how Florida's labor market directly impacts the housing market.

"When we've got high unemployment, we've got foreclosure. Foreclosures get fed back into the market and that puts downward pressure on prices," said Snaith.

It was colorful examples like these that kept the audience interested.

The Mayor of Orange County Teresa Jacobs made welcome remarks and said that though creating jobs was a top priority for the county, it can't be done alone.

"This is sincerely a team effort. The government doesn't do it by themselves, the private sector can't do it by themselves and even the financial industry can't do it by themselves. Altogether we have got to be part of the solution," Jacobs said.

Snaith said that though 2012 is Florida's "new runway," job growth isn't likely to take off until 2013 and 2014. In order to survive in an economy where jobs are scarce, people need to rely on employment security rather than job security. People are competing for jobs, so as competitors they must revive their skills, be more adaptable and willing to change employers and if needed, even markets.

In an interview the day before, he named some of the markets that students should look into considering because of their increased hiring. Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and even retail have all seen some job growth recently. Some industries that haven't been doing so well are construction, and government jobs, at the federal, state and local levels.

"I think it's a tough job market, there's really no way to put a happy spin on the labor market situation. I think the job search will be longer and students are going to have to be willing to look outside of Florida for opportunities," Snaith said.

He emphasized that students need to recognize that the job search is a job within itself. There are a lot of unemployed people out there looking for jobs, and it's important to broaden the search and be diligent. Students can't afford to have mistakes in their cover letters and resumes. In this economy they've got to find a way to stand out, he said.

"You just want to do anything you can that is under your control. And do it to your best ability."

 

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